tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1885549900454136918.post2393165125489763174..comments2023-08-11T08:06:28.810-07:00Comments on Slobber And Spittle (Archive): A Worthy AttemptCujo359http://www.blogger.com/profile/10385213658828021737noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1885549900454136918.post-78571797689785621322009-08-27T23:42:31.060-07:002009-08-27T23:42:31.060-07:00Cujo
Point taken. Still this test opens a door th...Cujo<br /><br />Point taken. Still this test opens a door that could lead to a new configuration in Asia.<br /><br />Russia could be more of a wild card than supposed. Besides there are solid Realpolitik reason why Russia may want to curb the cats-paw that the DPRK has become. Russia shares a border with North Korea and it probably has no enthusiasm for the reckless way the North tosses around Taepodongs.<br /><br />Russia may be trying to use missile technology to pry loose South Korea from Uncle Sam's embrace. By aiding the South's drive for space, the Russian are ingratiating themselves to Seoul. The South Korean get a little more self-reliant and Russia gains clout in the peninsula. More to the point Russia may not mind that the missiles in question could reach China. That might be the entire point.<br /><br />Any satellite launcher is a dual-use technology. It can launch either telecommunications gear or something a lot less benign. The purpose could be peaceful but that does not guarantee a peaceful intent somewhere down the line.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07881103048419383597noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1885549900454136918.post-82191004848674992402009-08-27T22:55:09.746-07:002009-08-27T22:55:09.746-07:00I'd considered this possibility, and while hav...I'd considered this possibility, and while having the ability to assemble rockets and build an upper stage is a step toward having tactically useful rockets, it's a small one. There are also other things that argue against this being any more than an effort to gain the most basic capabilities for rockets like the ones the NKs are building:<br /><br />- There's no tactical advantage for South Korea to have such rockets. They're much longer range than is needed to hit targets in the North. The big NK rockets are a threat to Japan, and to a lesser extent, us. That's because:<br /><br />- The North Koreans already have plenty of weapons with which to hit South Korean cities, and vice versa.<br /><br />- The main stage of these rockets is supplied by Russia. To make a useful tactical rocket, the SKs would either need Russia's cooperation, which is unlikely, or they need to develop a main stage on their own, which <em>could</em> be seen as provocative by both Russia and China.<br /><br />As long as the US-SK relationship is in place, South Korea doesn't need missiles like this. It's unlikely that that relationship will change any time soon.Cujo359https://www.blogger.com/profile/10385213658828021737noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1885549900454136918.post-11196859425953786042009-08-27T13:14:12.131-07:002009-08-27T13:14:12.131-07:00Cujo,
Not to be a wet blanket but one does have t...Cujo,<br /><br />Not to be a wet blanket but one does have to look at the Geopolitics of this launch.<br /><br />This "satellite launch" had a less benign implications. Specifically it was a response to Soul's less than friendly neighbor to the north the DPRK. Pyongyang has been tossing up a large number of malfunctioning Taepodong for the last few years. While many of these devices only managed to belly-flop into the Sea of Japan the implicit threat of these missiles has unnerved both South Korea and Japan. It doesn't help that Kim Jong Il's proletarian paradise has been busily tinkering away at nuclear device for the last decade. Fortunately the Stalinist state has been rather incompetent in its effort to make something that goes Ka-boom in the night. They still have not got that implosion thing sorted out--yet.<br /><br />Thus the launch was a lot more successful than one would think. The South Koreans can down-grade this satellite launcher into a very credible weapons system. North Korea and its Chinese enabler has been put on notice.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07881103048419383597noreply@blogger.com