Sunday Photo(s)

It's almost the end of June, and it's been one of the more gloomy Junes of late. While visiting the Seattle Asian Art Museum early this month, I took some exterior shots. Here are a couple of the tower that sits near the museum in Volunteer Park. The first is from the north:
Image credit: All images by Cujo359
from the east:

Then we arrived at the museum itself:

The entrance is guarded by a pair of stone camels, like this one:

By the time we got out, it was pouring rain, and so we didn't feel like staying long. I took an obligatory photo of the Space Needle through the funny statue:

And one of the resevoir:

I tried to take a picture of the carp pool, but it was caught in a space-time distortion:

The pool is actually circular, but for some reason the software I used to create this panorama didn't want to believe that. The carp seem to have survived the experience, though:

As did we. What's inside? I'll show some of that next weekend. Meantime, Dana Hunter has her own photos to share.

As always, click on the pictures to enlarge them.

Have a good Sunday.

iPhone 4? It's Next To The Tickle Me Elmos

Caption: The iPhone 4 running iBooks software. At least you'll have something to read while you're waiting for the phone to work.

Image credit: Apple Computer

Thinking about buying the new iPhone4? My advice would be to wait awhile. First of all, you have to battle the crowds, as the Miami Herald reports:

The long-awaited launch of the latest iPhone Thursday was welcomed with cops controlling crowds, short tempers, and complaints over disrupted signals and yellow spots on the screen.

"Apple did a terrible job," said Jalen James of North Bay Village. "They have an app for everything except how to organize a line."

James was at Aventura [Florida] Mall in the early hours, facing about 1,000 people outside the Apple Store before its doors opened at 7 a.m.

Some complaints, some quarrels as crowds grab up iPhone 4s

Things were like that lots of places, if PC Magazine is right:

Radio Shack had previously announced that some stores might not receive supplies of the new iPhone 4 on launch day, including units in black as well as white; Apple delayed the white iPhone because of an unexplained manufacturing issue. Radio Shack also said that it would extend its accessory bundle deals throughout July and work to obtain more iPhones as well.

Best Buy also announced that the company had begin filling "some" preorders, but @Coral_BestBuy, one of the members of its "twelp force," told one customer that "[I]deally we'd have had more than enough to fulfill all preorders and then some, unfortunately that was not the case."

Best Buy, Radio Shack, Wal-Mart Ship iPhone4

And what do you end up with if you do manage to find one? A phone with a troublesome new antenna:

Apple has finally acknowledged that the way you hold the iPhone 4 can hinder the device's cellular reception.

Complaints about weakening or disappearing signals when the iPhone 4 is gripped in a particular way--usually by touching two seams of the antenna band on the exterior of the phone simultaneously--began popping up late Wednesday night, and continued to appear Thursday.

Apple acknowledges antenna issue in iPhone 4

It also has newer, more complicated software:

Rule No. 1 when upgrading devices with new software is, "Your mileage may vary," and that seems to hold true for early adopters of iOS 4, the updated Apple operating system that became available for download on June 21. After experimenting with the new features for a couple of days, I'm ready to label my experience with iOS 4 as "relatively painless."
...
Apple is playing up the multitasking features of iOS 4, which only work on the iPhone 3GS and the latest iteration of the iPod Touch (and on the new iPhone 4, of course), but it's going to be the applications themselves that determine whether multitasking is useful.

iOS 4 Is an Upgrade Worth Having

So, first the application writers make their software compatible with the new features, then we find out if the new operating system's new features work properly. In my own experience, this seldom goes well.

Personally, I'd wait for the iPhone 4.1, or whatever the phone with a better antenna and a debugged OS will be called. If you can't wait that long, at least wait until they get more of them in the stores.

A War Of The Roses?

Since my traveling partner Dana Hunter posted an article last night on the Portland Rose Garden, I thought I'd post a few of my pictures of it as well. From her article, you might get the feeling that there are only roses there. It's easy to think that, because this is what you see when you enter:
Image credit: all images by Cujo359

There are lots of different roses there. What I was amazed by was the range of colors in each rose. Here is one called the Shreveport:

This one is called "Dream Come True". It apparently won some sort of award a couple of years ago:

Here's one called Funkuhr, believe it or not:

But, there are plenty of other things to see there. For instance, there's Shakespeare's Garden, which has hedges and apparently makes visitors feel compelled to pick up litter:

Lady MacBeth would be proud.

There's a beautiful willow tree:

a fountain:

and every once in a while, you can catch a glimpse of the Portland skyline:

As Dana mentioned, there's also a gift shop, and there's a little snack bar nearby. Lots to do while someone is trying to decide which orange rose he likes best.

As always, click on the pictures to enlarge.

The Afghanistan Org Chart

I'm not very good at organization charts. As I explained some time ago, they don't always reflect the real relationships in an organization:

I've never been good at organization charts. Usually, the only things I'm really interested in when I'm part of an organization is whom I'm working for, who, if anyone, is working for me, and who's running the show. Beyond that, it's all pretty academic to me. That's what bosses have to know.

The USA Eight: Odds and Ends: Organization Charts

In my experience, it's actually just more useful to observe whose ideas and policies are implemented and whose aren't. Organization charts never show the networks of trust that exist within an organization - who trusts whose opinion, who has the dirt on whom, etc. They also don't usually reflect the real division of responsibilities that result from a particular person being in a place to affect the entire organization's success or failure. Sometimes, someone whose name is in the middle of that org chart in an inconsequential looking box can be the one who makes or breaks an operation.

That latter consideration is something to keep in mind when discussing the seeming demotion of General David Petraeus from CENTCOM commander to commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan. In truth, Patraeus is now in a position to affect events more than he was at CENTCOM, and he will be doing the thing that just about any general wants to do - running a war effort. As the Marine Corps Times observed by publishing this Associated Press article:

The Afghanistan job is technically a demotion from Petraeus’ current post, where he oversees U.S. military involvement across the Middle East, including Iraq and Iran, as well as Afghanistan and Pakistan and several Central Asian nations.

Yet no one who has worked with him thinks that’s how he’ll see it. “He’s getting another opportunity to step into a war at a critical inflection point,” said [president of the Center for the New American Security John] Nagl, a retired Army officer who worked for Petraeus in drafting the Army’s counterinsurgency manual. “So this is by no means a step down.”

Petraeus readies for new Afghanistan duties

Command of NATO forces has been a position for a four-star general, which is what both Patraeus and McChrystal are. There is no loss of status here, and Patraeus is doing something that every general officer wants to do: run a war.

Thinking of this as a demotion is wrong-headed. I've seen at least a few statements to that effect, both in comments at progressive blogs and articles on some conservative ones, but it's just not so. Rather than assume it was, Talking Points Memo's David Kurtz called an expert for an opinion:

In returning to a battlefield command -- similar to the one he held in Iraq before being promoted to CENTCOM chief-- Petraeus may be the only combatant commander to have made such a move, and certainly the only one in the post-Cold War period when combatant commanders achieved their singular influence, says [Derek] Reveron, a professor of national security affairs at the Naval War College.

But replacing Stanley McChrystal as commander in Afghanistan probably should not be seen as a demotion of Petraeus, Reverson told me in a phone interview this morning. Rather the move underscores the signature importance of Afghanistan to U.S. policymakers and its operational significance to the military. "The job that Petraeus has is the most important job that any general or admiral could have," Reveron says.

The Petraeus 'Demotion'

In short, it's more like being transferred laterally to your dream job. At least, I can't imagine a flag officer thinking otherwise. It would be like a software engineer saying "No, I don't want to run that new DBMS design project. I'd rather repair this website." My guess is that President Obama had to do no more persuading than to ask Petraeus "Do you want the job?"

Afterword: Just for the record, I called for President Obama to fire General McChrystal. I have no feelings about the general one way or another, but as many folks have pointed out, we were in dangerous constitutional territory if his remarks and behavior were allowed to stand. McChrystal may have been right in his criticisms of various Obama Administration officials and their policy, but he was clearly wrong to express them publicly. Part of serving in the military is to give up the right to make such criticisms while staying on the job.

Had an infantry captain under McChrystal's command said such things about a superior in a public forum, he would have been lucky to be allowed to resign quietly.

They Never Learn

Image credit: Kristian D.

My real world self received this e-mail today from our state's governor, who was trying to raise support for Suzan Delbene, the party's latest chosen candidate to run for the Eighth Congressional District:

Like me, Suzan supported the passage of the health care reform bill because she fundamentally understands the financial strain our current system is placing on both large and small businesses in our state and on so many of our families.

I responded:

Unlike me, she clearly isn't capable of adding up those costs and strains. The health care bill put us at the mercy of insurance companies for our health care, and to add insult to injury, makes us either pay money we can't afford for insurance we can't use, or pay a penalty to the IRS. That Ms. Delbene doesn't understand what a lousy bill this is would seem to demonstrate that she'll be a lousy advocate for ordinary Americans.

Let her be the latest to lose to Dave Reichert. I have to save up my money to buy worthless insurance.

If you ever want this system to be made right, Democrats need to hear this from you, too. They need to hear it a lot. They seem to think that this health care bill is some kind of selling point for them. They're sadly mistaken.

Much as I'd love for someone who is at least nominally progressive to replace former law enforcement spokesmodel Dave Reichert, it's not going to happen this time. The Democrats have screwed that pooch big time, and they continue to screw it over and over again while looking quite pleased with themselves.

Juan Cole On The McChrystal Fiasco

Caption: U.S. Army Spc. Marcelino Villarreal, from Charlie Company, 1st Battalion, 162nd Field Artillery Regiment, Puerto Rico National Guard, provides security while Soldiers from Charlie Company, 26th Field Artillery Regiment recover a humvee stuck on a muddy road in the Khost Province, Afghanistan, March 25, 2007. (U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Isaac A. Graham)

A suitable metaphor for our current condition in Afghanistan, I think.

Image credit: Staff Sgt. Isaac A. Graham, U.S. Army/Wikimedia

Juan Cole has an interesting analysis of the resignation of Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the now former commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan. It concludes:

[Afghanistan President Hamid] Karzai appears to be attempting to strike a deal with the very Taliban and insurgents that Obama says he is pledged to uproot and destroy.

How can that make sense?

No wonder McChrystal was so frustrated that he went around his line of command to the press. The real reason for this contretemps is that Obama does not have a realistic, sharply defined set of goals in Afghanistan, and he has not been good about cracking the whip and getting everyone in his administration on the same page on AfPak.

McChrystal Drama is Sideshow;
Can Obama define a realistic Goal?

All of which, I think, is basically true. There was clearly a great deal of dissension between McChrystal and his superiors about what to do in Afghanistan, and a lot of hostility between the major players. Hostility can work, provided there is reason to think the campaign is successful. In fact, hostility is most noticeable in situations where things aren't working out, because those differing opinions lead to different notions about what and who is to blame for the failure. There's little reason to think that hostility is working to our benefit here, and a whole lot of reason to suspect the opposite.

A Prediction That Didn't Work Out

I love it when I'm wrong. That may sound perverse, but in reality it means that, for once, someone didn't screw up on behalf of the country. From a FireDogLake live blog:

MSNBC’s Jim Miklaszewski is reporting that Pentagon sources confirm that President Barack Obama has relieved Gen. Stanley McChrystal from his command of forces in Afghanistan.

President Barack Obama has decided to relieve Gen. Stanley McChrystal of his command over all U.S. military forces in Afghanistan, sources tell NBC News.

Obama is scheduled to make an official 1:30 p.m. EDT announcement about the general.

MSNBC is also reporting (now confirmed by a CNN national seurity source) that Obama has tapped Gen. David Petraeus, current head of US Central COmmand, as McChrystal’s replacement.

McChrystal Relieved of Command; Obama Names Petraeus as Replacement in Afghanistan

As the title says, Gen. Petraeus will replace McChrystal. I'm not sure that the Surgin' General is the best choice as a replacement, but at least as CENTCOM commander he's familiar with the situation.

Just yesterday, I predicted that Obama wouldn't do this. I'm glad to see that at least he won't overlook the obvious when it's about to kick him in the gonads. I'm also glad because losing control of the military would be a very bad thing for America. Plenty of countries have learned what that means, and very few remain democracies today.

On Stating The Obvious

Ian Welsh remarks on how easy it is to make good predictions these days:

Most of my analytical and predictive successes have been of the “this is bloody obvious” variety. A commenter said the other day that predicting that Dems would take losses in 2010 was an obvious prediction, but in early 2009 most of the rest of the progressive blogosphere was busy telling themselves and everyone else that the Republicans were such a disaster that at worst losses would be mild and Dems might even make gains.

Likewise, the housing bubble was obvious way out. All you had to do was look at a chart. It didn’t take being a genius economist (which I’m not). It didn’t take fancy math. All it took was the ability to say “hey, that looks exactly like a bubble, and all bubbles burst”. All you had to do was listen for the fools saying “it’s different this time”.

It’s almost never different this time. Human nature does not change. Things which didn’t work in the past are unlikely to work now. Incompetent people, which is to say people with a track record of screwing up, are not likely to suddenly become competent. And if you can’t imagine what it’s like to be someone you despise, you can’t predict what they’ll do.

The Bloody Obviousness Of Most Good Predictions

And yes, it really is that simple sometimes. I added that italic emphasis, because in many cases that's what I hear when I state the obvious conclusion to whatever plan or action we're discussing: "This time isn't like the others." People usually think that they're special; they're smarter, better informed, or just plain cooler than the folks who screwed up the same way before. When I hear such talk, I usually have a Blowed Up moment. I have so many of those these days that I sometimes think I should get a cell phone.

I often refer to what I'm doing here as stating the obvious. The obvious often needs to be stated out loud, in my experience. People will ignore it otherwise. If you bring it up, people at least have to consider it, and the smarter ones actually will look at you and say "I hadn't thought of that."

I'm A Much Better Dancer...

.. after I've had a couple. At least, that seems like a good caption for this photo, courtesy of Yves Smith:
Image credit: Naked Capitalism

Got The Fire, Got The Dog ...

Caption: OK, I found a fire, I'm sure there's a lake around here somewhere. I'll look for it after my nap...

Image credit: St. Bernards Hotel, in Australia, who have absolutely nothing to do with this article, or with FireDogLake.


There are quite a few blogs out there. Some are good, some aren't. If you're a progressive, though, there's one blog that should stand out: FireDogLake.

Lots of folks think they know what it is: a shrill place where people are always finding stuff that's wrong with America. Actually, it's the place that tells you what's wrong with America when most news outlets, including a few other blogrollees, should be telling you. Marcy Wheeler, David Dayen, and Jon Walker provide reporting that often puts other news outlets to shame, and there are usually at least a few good user diaries on any given day.

Sure, there are days when FDL annoys me. On the other hand, more often than not, they annoy the right people. And if you want to see truly insane comments threads, you can do a lot better, um worse?, than FDL. So on the whole, I like them, and more importantly, I respect their work. It's valuable, useful work that might not get done if they aren't around to do it.

Until the end of this month, FireDogLake is running a pledge drive. They're trying to get enough contributions to keep the bytes flowing for the next six months. So if you have a few extra bucks that the government or the corporations that own it haven't screwed you out of yet, you'd do a lot worse than to head to their contributions page and leave them there.