Saturday, October 25, 2008

That Didn't Take Long

The results of two new polls have been released for the Minnesota Sixth Congressional district. That race, between Michelle Bachmann and Elwyn Tinklenberg, was turned around dramatically by Bachmann's call for a new witch hunt for un-American views among her fellow congressmen. As I indicated at the time, there were some signs that Bachmann was in serious electoral trouble, and these latest polls have driven the point home.

Here is the latest trend chart by Pollster:

Compare this to the previous chart from ten days ago, and you'll see that the upward trend in Tinklenberg's numbers has become more pronounced. Pollster has the race as 43.6 - 42.5 in favor of Bachmann, but the last two polls both show the race a dead heat, with Tinklenberg leading by less than the margin of error.

These two polls are the first independent polls conducted in the district.

That's a substantial jump, but it's still possible that the race will swing more firmly the Democrat's way in the closing days. There are still 5 to 8 percent undecided in the race. Bachmann's a known quantity, so it seems more likely that Tinklenberg will appeal to late deciders. That's particularly true in light of Bachmann's recent performances.

UPDATE: Lotus spotted this bit from the article on the second independent poll:

[Director of the Humphrey Institute's Center for the Study of Politics and Governance Larry] Jacobs says the poll results show Bachmann is losing support even among Republicans.

"Among supporters of Norm Coleman and John McCain, there's a about one-fifth of them saying that they're not supporting Michele Bachmann. And indeed among Republicans, Michele Bachmann is losing about one-fifth of them. So her base is cleary shaken up about what's happened," said Jacobs.

The survey found two-thirds of 6th District voters disagree with Bachmann's comments.

Reed Christianson of Woodbury says he was shocked by what he heard from his congresswoman. Christianson says he had planned to vote for Bachmann, but not anymore.

"Since this has come out I've learned a lot more about who she's running against. And with the comments she made, it made me determine that I'm not going to vote for her," said Christianson. "And I'd vote for anybody, no matter who was running against her, based on her comments."

Poll: Dead Heat In The 6th District Race

Combine Bachmann's worrisome rhetoric with Tinklenberg's positive campaign, and you have a reason for many of Bachmann's more rational supporters to change their minds.


Eli said...

Gee, I guess even Republicans don't like being represented by McCarthyist psychos.

Cujo359 said...

For at least some of the rank and file, yes, I think that's true. I'm pretty sure the politicians don't care.