Friday, October 17, 2008

SnS Blue: Some Updates

I've been spending some time over at Pollster today, looking over polls. There is some good news and bad news there for the remaining Slobber and Spittle Blue candidates.

First, the good news. Polls came out this week showing that Darcy Burner is ahead in the race for the WA-08 Congressional district. This has been an up-and-down struggle against faux independent Republican Dave Reichert. The Pollster trends chart now looks like this:

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Reichert's numbers began falling in early September. Lynn Allen, an astute observer of the race (and someone who worked for Burner's campaign), guesses at the reasons:

Yes, I'm pleased to see that Darcy appears to have pulled ahead. I'm not sure that enough people watch those debates but some combination of the debates, her ads pointing out Reichert's lack of effectiveness in Congress and the economy in general did it.

Comments: Contempt and the Last Debate

I suspect she's right, but whatever the reason, it's welcome news.

Meanwhile, in the NY-29 district, Eric Massa appears to hold a lead over his opponent, incumbent Republican Rich Kuhl. I say "appears" because there are only three polls listed on Pollster's trend chart for this race, which isn't enough polls to even draw a trend chart. This is good news also, as this race is one the Republicans probably feel they have to win. It's in what's considered a Republican-leaning area. Losing it means that the Republicans will have only a handful of representatives from the state.

In the department of bad news, Andrew Rice is still far behind in his race for the Senate in Oklahoma against Republican incumbent James Inhofe, who's been yet another congresscritter willing to let the Bush Administration drive us over a cliff. Speaking of cliffs, Rice came up with the best commercials of the political season. According to the Pollster trends chart, Rice has been gaining ground recently:

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This race may not be over yet, but Rice has more than twelve points to make up between now and election day. Unless the polls there are badly skewed, it looks like a rough road ahead for Andrew.

I can't find any polling information on either Sam Bennett's race in the PA-15 Congressional district, nor in Donna Edwards' MD-04. In the latter, I suspect Edwards will do fine, but in Bennett's case, the issue is still in doubt. While Bennett led by a mile in the primary vote, that isn't the one that counts.

So, at this moment, it looks like SnS Blue will be batting .500 this year. Maybe Sam can put us over the top. I certainly hope so. These are good people - we need more like them in Congress.

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