Thursday, October 7, 2010

Of Horse Races And Their Meaning

Over at MyDD, Jerome Armstrong pretty much gets what's going to happen the next few years:
When will the Democrats get a grove back? Obama's numbers are likely to get even worse in 2011. We are going to have to see some vicious Democratic primaries that go against the anti-populist sentiment among the DC Democratic establishment. Otherwise, it may not be until 2016, and after Republicans take total control in 2012.

Its a few weeks away from the bloodbath, and I've no reason to look at the blood being spilled on a daily basis.

2010 Polling
That final sentence captures part of the reason I'm not much interested in blogging these days. The other part is that I'm really not all that interested in how much blood gets spilled. The DC Democrats have betrayed almost all their natural constituencies in the name of big campaign bucks from the financial, pharmaceutical, and petroleum industries. They left us to twist in the wind while the depression we're now in took hold, only pausing long enough to bail out the banks.

If the Democrats manage to hold onto the House, then they will learn nothing, and will probably lose even bigger in 2012. Either way, things are going to continue as they have the next two years. I've never seen an election where so little mattered. Those are such obvious conclusions that it barely seems worth mentioning, yet there are plenty of folks out there who clearly don't see that.

Those folks should be cheered up by Jane Hamsher's analysis of the upcoming election:
I actually think there is reason to believe the Democrats may do better in the November elections than many believe. Not great, but better than they should have expected at this point. And that’s largely based on factors that aren’t going to show up in the polls.

Top 10 Reasons the Democrats Might Do Better In 2010 Than You Think
The short version of that article is that the Republicans have been their own worst enemy. They haven't organized, they've splintered, and they manage to say something stupid or offensive to moderates and just about anyone who isn't a religious nutcase or a racist every time they open their mouths.

I still think the Democrats will lose the House this year. It just may not be by a phenomenal margin. Don't forget, the GOP has to pick up 41 seats to take control. That's a lot in any election year.

UPDATE: Just add this thought to the end: It's even possible that the Democrats will manage to retain that House. If that happens, you can pretty well bet that the disaster some folk seem to fear if Republicans come to power actually will happen in 2012, when they GOP takes control of both the White House and Congress.

The Democrats might be savvy enough to pull out a victory here, but they're nowhere near smart enough to change their ways in time for 2012. And that's going to kill them.

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