Friday, October 8, 2010

September Employment Numbers

I'd make more of the unemployment numbers that came out today, but plenty of folks have already. Here's David Dayen:
The numbers, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: the economy lost 95,000 jobs in September, with the topline unemployment rate unchanged at 9.6%. 77,000 of those losses came from reductions at the 2010 US Census, so taking that out of the equation you’re still at -18,000. The private sector gained 64,000 jobs, the ninth straight month of private-sector gains. But government and public-sector jobs outside the Census also crashed, a victim of continued rolling budget cuts, mostly in education. That has furthered the jobs crisis.

Jobs Report: -95,000, without Census -18,000
Here's what
Private-sector payrolls rose by 64,000 in September. Private payrolls increased a revised 93,000 in August, up from the 67,000 initially estimated.

Image credit: MarketWatch

Still, the private-payrolls growth for September came in weaker than the increase of 85,000 that by economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected.

The payrolls count in July and August was revised lower by a cumulative 15,000. Payrolls fell a revised 57,000 in July and by 66,000 in August.

Economy loses jobs at faster pace in September
AFP bottom lines the political implications this way:
September was the 17th consecutive month of unemployment that equaled or surpassed 9.4 percent, the longest stretch since the start of monthly figures in 1948.

The report was the last monthly jobs snapshot ahead of the November 2 mid-term elections.

Obama and his Democratic Party needed a strong report to crow about the recovery ahead of the vote, in which opposition Republicans are expected to make strong gains and possibly recapture a majority in one or both chambers of Congress.

US Unexpectedly Sheds 95,000 Jobs In September
I would be surprised, but not shocked, to see the GOP take control of the Senate this year. They have to gain ten seats in the Senate, out of thirty-two that are in play. Even assuming that Joe Lieberman would change sides if it suited him, that still leaves nine races they have to win where they don't have a Republican Senator now. That's a big hurdle.

Still, by screwing up early and often on the economy, and giving people absolutely no reason to think anything better is on the horizon, the Democrats could still manage to make it possible.

Dayen wrote something that I have to disagree with:
We’re basically in a crippling stasis in the job market.

Jobs Report: -95,000, without Census -18,000
Stasis means nothing is changing. What's actually happening is that the economy is deteriorating. Even if there had been no job losses in the public sector, the 64,000 jobs created in the private sector is only about half what’s needed to employ the people entering the work force this month.

So, even when we finally reach Grover Norquist territory, and there are no more government jobs to lose, we’ll still be losing ground. We’re nowhere near there yet, of course.

That’s what you can infer from this report. Things are going to get much worse. That's true no matter which party takes control of Congress this fall. The one in control now is supposed to be the one that watches out for the little guy. They've been screwing us as much as they can. They're going to pay dearly for that this fall, but that isn't going to help us, I'm afraid.

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