Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Super Mega Frickin' Tuesday Is Here

Geoge Caleb Bingham's The County Election

It's finally arrived, the day when the fate of American civilization will be decided by the handful of people who show up:

Democratic and Republican White House hopefuls are making their final Super Tuesday pitches as voters in 24 states and American Samoa are heading to the polls.

Super Tuesday is virtually a national primary day, and some of the biggest prizes of the primary season -- California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Missouri and Georgia -- are up for grabs.

White House hopefuls make Super Tuesday pitches

Of course, Super Tuesday wasn't always quite so super. Wikipedia explains:

The phrase "Super Tuesday" has been used to refer to presidential primary elections since at least 1984 as dates when a large number of states held presidential primaries. In fact, the 1984 primary season had three "Super Tuesdays," ending with "Super Tuesday III", when Walter Mondale finally secured the Democratic nomination.

The phrase "Super Tuesday" was next used to describe the primary elections that took place on March 8, 1988, in the Southern states of Texas, Florida, Tennessee, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Kentucky, Alabama, and Georgia leading up to the 1988 election in November. Southern Democrats came up with the idea of a regional primary in an effort to nominate a moderate candidate who would more closely represent their interests.

Wikipedia: Super Tuesday

Now, almost half the delegates to the Democratic convention will be elected today. No candidate is going to win the nomination today, but if there's a clear winner it's going to be much harder for the other candidate(s) to catch up.

Right now, the Obama campaign is trying to spin a close loss as a win:

The Obama camp welcomed new polls showing him closing the gap with Clinton on the national level. But the former first lady's formidable lead in many states voting today means that for Obama, finishing up to 100 delegates behind Clinton could be seen as a win.

From Georgia to California, candidates prepare for Super Tuesday

They might not be far wrong. If it's close, then both candidates still have a chance. Supposedly, Obama's been gaining momentum, but I'm still waiting for the Rezko bomb and other little issues to rear their heads. The press has really only started to cover Obama seriously in the last few weeks.

Obama has been gaining in the polls, that's for sure. This rather complicated chart from Pollster shows that most of the more recent polls have shown Obama gaining ground. But in only two states, Georgia and Illinois, is he clearly ahead of Clinton.

It looks like Clinton will come out ahead, but unless she's way ahead, she may want to alter her strategy a little.

If you're in one of those states, don't forget to get out and vote, while you still can.