Not Too Surprising

Image credit: Pollster.com.

John McCain locked up the Republican nomination for President yesterday:

John McCain secured the Republican presidential nomination yesterday with a four-state sweep, getting a head start against the Democrats going into November's general election.

McCain's rival, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, 52, dropped out of the race after losing to the Arizona senator in Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island.

McCain Clinches Republican Nomination After Sweep

No one who has even glanced at the news on that race could be too surprised. McCain's been ahead for a while now, and he's the choice of the Republican establishment. That he would be their choice this time would seem to suggest just how apprehensive they are about this election - McCain is one of the few candidates in that field who have any real support among independents. As the Washington Post observed:

The exit polls showed McCain with a clear advantage among moderates and independents across the board, while Huckabee -- a Baptist minister -- was tied or leading among evangelicals in several states. Self-described conservatives have shown more varied tastes, though Romney out-performed McCain in most states among that constituency, including Arizona. McCain scored solid victories with seniors and military veterans.

McCain Surging; Huckabee Strong In The South; Romney Winning in Rockies (Feb. 5, 2008)

[emphasis mine]

In the not-too distant past, they would have been revolted by a candidate who even gave lip service to deviating from the party line, which is about all McCain's actually managed to do in the past eight years. Now, they seem to think that if they have any chance at all, it will be with someone who appeals to the middle.

On the Democratic side, of course, things are a bit less settled:

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s victories in Ohio and Texas on Tuesday night not only shook off the vapors of impending defeat, but also showed that — in spite of his delegate lead — Senator Barack Obama was still losing to her in the big states.

In 2 Battlegrounds, Voters Say, Not Yet

The New York Times isn't quite right, though. Clinton's been strong in most states where there were primary elections, rather than caucuses. The latter have been Obama's turf. Clinton's also more popular among Democratic voters. Obama tends to win in primaries where voters of one party can vote for candidates of another. As usual in their coverage of this race, the press have overlooked the obvious.

Speaking of which, here's a bit of conventional wisdom that I could do without:

For Mrs. Clinton, the battle ahead is not so much against Mr. Obama as it is against a Democratic Party establishment that had once been ready to coalesce behind her but has been drifting toward Mr. Obama. The party wants a standard-bearer now to wage the war against the newly minted leader of the Republicans, Senator John McCain, who enjoys a head start with every day that the Democrats lack a nominee of their own.

In 2 Battlegrounds, Voters Say, Not Yet

Did the NYT think to check whether these party elders also happen to be Obama supporters? I bet they haven't. I've encountered this nonsense before, mainly from Obama supporters in this election cycle. Yet, when I've called them on it, they haven't been able to come up with a single example of how a long, drawn out primary fight was actually detrimental to the party's chances. There are at least a few examples of a where such a battle was followed by a defeat in the general election, but in all the cases I can think of, there were underlying difficulties that either precipitated those fights or were another symptom of the party's own difficulties. Yet this particular pearl of wisdom goes unchallenged in the news, and unexamined as well.

That the same geniuses who have lost nearly every Presidential election of the last 25 years cling to this nonsense, and the press is uninterested in checking it out, shouldn't be terribly surprising to anyone.

Meanwhile, I feel there's at least some hope that we won't have to choose between Obama an McCain for President, and that's something to be thankful for.

Pollster.com hasn't updated its polls in almost a week. I haven't been following the polls enough to know why. The graph in this article still shows Obama with a 6.9 point lead. It will be interesting to see what effect the last couple of weeks of debates and elections have had.